Fixation, Défixation : Comment battre le marché.
Quand on achète de l’énergie, les professionnels ont généralement le choix entre deux options… Opter pour un prix fixe ou un prix indexé. Mais en réalité, les marges de manoeuvres des acheteurs ne se limitent pas à cela.
C’est pour évoquer ces sujets que nous avons fait appel à Nicolas Leclerc, responsable de l’offre de Gazprom Energy.
Le MaGAZine : Bonjour Nicolas, pour commencer, je souhaiterais vous poser une question simple : Prix fixes ou Prix indexés ?
Le prix fixe est très bien si l’achat représente une part modeste de votre valeur ajoutée, cela vous permet d’obtenir une visibilité budgétaire tout en limitant votre investissement en temps. Par contre, ce faisant, vous n’êtes généralement pas maître du moment où vous souscrivez et donc dépendant de l’état du marché à ce moment-là.
A contrario un produit indexé vous permet une gestion dynamique de votre contrat. Soit les prix du marché sont bons et vous restez en indexé soit une opportunité sur le court ou moyen-terme se présente et vous fixer votre prix en une ou plusieurs fois.
Ainsi moyennant un faible investissement en temps passé pour suivre le marché et ses grandes tendances vous limitez grandement le risque de souscrire au “mauvais” moment.
De plus en anticipant la conclusion du contrat par rapport à la période budgétaire, vous pouvez obtenir la même visibilité qu’un prix fixe en fixant tous les volumes avant livraison.
Dit autrement vous construisez un prix fixe en plusieurs fois en décidant réellement des moments où vous achetez.
Et oui, finalement un prix fixe n’est qu’un prix indexé qui aurait été fixé en totalité au moment de la signature du contrat.
Le MaGAZine : Vous faites référence à la fixation, vous pouvez nous en dire un peu plus ?
Un prix indexé est un prix qui traduit le marché de l’énergie court-terme. Dans le gaz les plus courants sont l’indice du prix pour le lendemain (day-ahead) et celui pour le mois suivant (month-ahead). La stratégie de sourcing du fournisseur copie ensuite l’indice retenu : par exemple pour un prix day-ahead, le fournisseur n’achète vos volumes que du jour pour le lendemain.
Un prix indexé implique que votre prix n’est connu que la veille pour le lendemain ou d’un mois le suivant, ce qui n’est pas idéal pour construire un budget !
C’est là que la possibilité de fixation du prix intervient : une fixation consiste à acheter en avance tout ou partie des volumes futurs d’une période donnée à un prix donné. Par exemple, j’achète aujourd’hui les volumes que je prévois consommer au 4ème trimestre de l’année suivante.
Si ce n’est pas trop loin dans le futur il existe également des marchés pour ça ! Dans ce cas le fournisseur va acheter l’énergie sur des produits de marchés dits “futurs” ou “forward” (le prix est défini aujourd’hui mais la livraison sera dans le futur).
Pour résumer : la fixation est intéressante si vous avez besoin de visibilité budgétaire, ou si vous êtes joueur et que vous anticipez que le prix court-terme sera moins intéressant dans le futur que le prix de la fixation aujourd’hui.
Le MaGAZine : Il y a un profil type d’acheteurs de gaz ayant recours à la fixation ?
Généralement les consommateurs pour qui le budget gaz est important on recours à ce type de produit pour limiter leur risque et optimiser ce budget.
En tout état de cause ceux qui ont compris qu’il y a des moments où il est opportuns d’acheter et d’autres non en fonction du marché
Le MaGAZine : Ils cherchent donc à éliminer le risque ?
Tout à fait ! Ils éliminent une bonne partie du risque d’acheter au mauvais moment car ces acheteurs ne sont plus contraints par la date du Board ou autre. Ils ont un mandat clair de la part de leur management sur leur terrain de jeu (les prix et les échéances) et ont donc toutes les cartes en main pour acheter au bon moment.
Le MaGAZine : Mais si en anticipant une hausse du marché il faut fixer son prix, que fait-on lorsqu’on anticipe une baisse du prix ?
L’un des boulots du fournisseur d’énergie est d’être l’intermédiaire du client sur le marché le gros. Sur un marché on peut acheter, mais on peut aussi… vendre !
Lorsqu’on anticipe une baisse de prix ou que la tendance est baissière il est possible de revendre des volumes déjà achetés (ndlr déjà fixés) en espérant les racheter plus tard à un prix plus intéressant.
Le MaGAZine : C’est pas un petit peu contre-intuitif de vendre quand on est… acheteur ?
Ok je vous l’accorde. Mais c’est le niveau 2 d’optimisation de votre achat qui peut rapporter gros dans certaines situations de marché, tout en prenant un risque modéré : par exemple si la position est déjà très bénéficiaire (ndlr. votre fixation vaut plus cher aujourd’hui que le prix que vous l’avez acheté) et qu’une tendance baissière se profile.
Cela sous-entend pour l’acheteur que son achat est évalué par rapport au marché et non par rapport à une budget fixe.
Le MaGAZine : Comment ça se passe concrètement ?
Concrètement si vous défixez, votre fournisseur va revendre les volumes à un prix convenu avec vous. La somme (ndlr. positive ou négative) constituée de l’écart de prix entre votre achat et votre revente fois les volumes en question (ndlr. ce qu’on appelle le “Mark-To-Market”) fera l’objet, soit d’une régularisation sur la prochaine facture soit sera lissée sur la période ayant fait l’objet de l’opération.
Le MaGAZine : Mais ce n’est pas du trading ça ?
Nicolas Leclerc : Ce n’est pas considéré comme du trading puisqu’on reste dans les volumes contractuels nécessaires à sa propre activité (NDLR : dans ce cadre ce type d’opération est exclu de la norme IFRS9 relative à la comptabilité des opérations sur des produits dérivés) et cela est plutôt pragmatique : imaginons que vous avez déjà fixé tous vos volumes futurs et apprenez que vous allez consommer moins que prévu sur une période donnée (par exemple du fait d’une maintenance). Vous pouvez alors avoir envie de revendre d’avance ces volumes achetés en surplus afin d’éviter le risque de les revendre en Day-Ahead à un prix par définition pas encore connu.
Le MaGAZine : Merci pour toutes ces précisions !
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