ARENH : Quelle est la meilleure stratégie d’achat ?
par Fabien BOUCHERON – Directeur Technique Commerce BtoB – Total Direct Energie
Le contexte :
Un projet de loi proposant notamment de nouvelles règles pour encadrer l’accès régulé à l’électricité nucléaire historique (ARENH) a été voté par l’Assemblée Nationale le 11/09, et propose la possibilité :
- De revoir le volume maximal d’ARENH demandé par les fournisseurs (plafond) à la hausse, jusque 150 TWh/an à compter du 1er Janvier 2020, dans « l’objectif de contribuer à la stabilité des prix pour le consommateur final ».
Ceci pourrait grandement diminuer le risque d’écrêtement des demandes ARENH.
- De modifier le prix de l’ARENH, actuellement à 42€/MWh, de sorte notamment à prendre en compte l’inflation et le plafond de demandes
Chacune de ces deux mesures nécessitera la parution d’un arrêté pour être entérinée.
Quels enjeux pour les clients finaux ?
- Si la loi n’est pas suivie d’arrêtés :
Par rapport à la gestion de votre approvisionnement 2019, deux paramètres changent malgré tout :
- Les parts de marché des fournisseurs alternatifs ont augmenté et le sera encore plus dépassé qu’en 2019. Ceci augmentera l’écrêtement des droits, et rendra le sourcing en ARENH plus incertain encore, pour les fournisseurs et leurs clients
- Le prix des garanties de capacité est aujourd’hui supérieur pour l’année de livraison 2020 à ce qu’il était pour l’année de livraison 2019, ce qui accroît l’intérêt de l’ARENH, tout en renchérissant les volumes qui seraient écrêtés.
Quel approvisionnement choisir ?
Qu’importe le niveau du plafond, le volume l’ARENH reste aujourd’hui le moyen d’approvisionnement le moins cher. Il faut donc s’en servir.
Cela implique toutefois un risque d’écrêtement. Il conviendra d’évaluer ce risque et de prendre les dispositions qui s’imposent pour s’en affranchir. Votre fournisseur pourra vous proposer des solutions en amont et/ou en aval de la publication des demandes d’ARENH des fournisseurs.
- Si le plafond augmente
Une augmentation du plafond à 150 TWh permettrait de minimiser ou d’annuler le phénomène d’écrêtement.
Dans la stratégie de contractualisation que vous mettrez en œuvre, dans le cas d’un plafond à 150 TWh, votre fournisseur pourra vous offrir 100% de votre droit ARENH (ou quasiment), pour un prix de fourniture optimal. Inutile donc de prévoir des mécanismes de couverture en amont de l’allocation des droits ARENH.
Pour les horizons plus lointains, en fonction des demandes d’ARENH de chaque année, votre fournisseur pourra vous proposer des solutions analogues au point 1 pour minimiser votre risque.
- Si le prix de l’ARENH change
Indépendamment des volumes alloués, l’autre sujet reste le choix entre un contrat ARENH et un contrat 100% Marché. Il conviendra d’évaluer l’intérêt de ces 2 options au regard:
- du prix de l’ARENH
- du prix de la capacité pour l’année de livraison considérée
- du prix du produit calendar Baseload pour l’année de livraison considérée
Il s’agira de choisir l’approvisionnement le moins cher entre ARENH et (calendar baseload + prix de la capacité) pour le volume correspondant à votre droit ARENH.
- Si plafond et prix changent :
La situation est simplifiée d’un point de vue pratique pour l’année 2020 puisque le principal problème était la gestion de l’écrêtement, il se voit largement diminué si le plafond est à 150 TWh…
Côté prix, l’ARENH reste encore intéressant. Le prix du produit Baseload, auquel s’ajoute l’achat de capacité correspondant au droit ARENH, devrait passer en dessous du prix de l’ARENH… Avec des calendars Baseload à 52€/MWh pour 2020, 50€/MWh pour 2021, 49€/MWh pour 2022, l’écart reste important.
Votre fournisseur pourra là aussi vous aiguiller dans le choix de la meilleure offre.
Je vous en dirai plus dans ma Business Session du 16/10/2019 à 14h30 en salle 1 !
Fabien BOUCHERON – Directeur Technique Commerce BtoB – Total Direct Energie
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