Comment faire face aux évolutions des prix marché par les mécanismes de fixation des prix ?
Contexte actuel du marché gazier
Depuis quelques années, le marché de l’énergie, notamment du gaz naturel, s’est de plus en plus complexifié. Son prix dépend de nombreux facteurs tels que :
- L’offre et la demande, liées aux conditions météorologiques
- Les prix du pétrole
- Le prix du carbone et du charbon
- La géopolitique
- Le GNL, dont la disponibilité dépend des prix dans toutes les parties du monde, en particulier en Asie
- Les aspects techniques comme l’impact de Groningue, la fermeture de stockages en UK, les flux de gaz venant de la Russie
- Les moyens de production de l’électricité : notamment avec l’usage du gaz, créant une dépendance à la disponibilité des centrales nucléaires et du photovoltaïque
- Les niveaux d’utilisation européens des stockages de gaz
Conséquences sur les prix du gaz naturel et décisions stratégiques
Au-delà de la complexité du marché, ces facteurs ont donc des conséquences sur le prix du gaz naturel payé par le consommateur final. En effet, la volatilité des prix peut être très importante, en plus des simples fluctuations saisonnières classiques.
Dans un tel contexte, tout achat à prix fixe en une seule fois peut être considéré comme spéculatif et il est difficile pour un acheteur de savoir s’il a pris une bonne décision d’achat.
Il est donc conseillé de prendre un prix indexé sur le marché en Month Ahead* et, par la suite, de définir une stratégie d’achat basée sur des prises de position réactives à des moments opportuns du marché. Ces prises de position sont définies pour un pourcentage donné et une période choisie de la consommation prévisionnelle.
Chez Naturgy par exemple, nous nous efforçons d’apporter aux acheteurs tous les éléments factuels et les produits qui leurs permettent de limiter le risque pris et de choisir la bonne option au bon moment.
Cela passe par une information marché précise délivrée quotidiennement par notre département Business Intelligence et des prévisions sur les évolutions des jours futurs, pour ne pas s’en tenir uniquement aux évènements passés.
Cela se traduit par des offres dédiées permettant aux acheteurs de définir au mieux la stratégie d’achat, dont ils peuvent discuter à tout moment avec des chargés d’affaires à l’aise avec tous les facteurs impactant le marché.
Ces offres peuvent prendre la forme de mandats indicatifs ou fermes, d’aide à la construction d’une stratégie chiffrée, ou encore de produits permettant de fixer tous les volumes avant une période contractuelle donnée.
Pour aller plus loin…
Nous vous attendons lors de nos 2 business sessions pour parler de l’actualité du marché et des mécanismes permettant de fixer les prix.
- Les actualités et les évolutions des fondamentaux du marché gazier :
- Actualité européenne
- Fluctuations du marché
- Tendances
- Positionnement des acteurs sur le marché
Intervenant : Julien Gagnière – Responsable grands comptes NATURGY – Le 15 octobre 14h00-14h30
- Les éléments clés d’une stratégie de fixation de prix :
- Qu’est-ce qu’une fixation de prix ?
- Pourquoi ?
- Les différents produits disponibles
Intervenant : Jean-François Daubonne – Directeur des ventes industrielles NATURGY – Le 15 octobre 14h30-15h00
* Month Ahead : prix du gaz du mois M, basé sur la valeur de clôture du mois précédent (M-1), sur les marchés hubs.
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